GTA 6 Could Cost US$80 and Generate US$7.6 Billion in Two Months

Grand Theft Auto 6 (GTA 6) is being designed to be the biggest video game release of all time, with a projected $7.6 billion in its first two months on the market. This ambitious projection comes from the venture capital firm Konvoy, specialized in gaming investments, which based its analysis on internal data and predicts that the game will be sold for $80 per copy. If confirmed, this value would not only redefine industry standards in terms of price and revenue, but also solidify GTA 6 as a cultural and financial phenomenon like never before.

Konvoy Ventures projects a record-breaking launch for GTA 6, with $7.6 billion in revenue in the first 60 days and a price of $80, impacting the future of AAA game values.

Sales Projections and High Price

According to Josh Chapman from Konvoy, the firm forecasts that GTA 6 will be released on May 26, 2026 and will sell 85 million copies in the first 60 days. The central premise of this estimate is that the standard edition of the game will be priced at $80. This pricing, although higher than the current standard of $70 for AAA games, is not considered "far from reality" by Konvoy, citing Nintendo as a precedent for already surpassing the $60 barrier in its first-party titles.

The projection of $7.6 billion in revenue in just two months is colossal. For reference, GTA V sold a total of 215 million copies by 2025. Konvoy expects GTA 6 to break even on its investment in less than 30 days, which is remarkable considering that the development cost of GTA 6 is estimated between hundreds of millions to $2 billion.

In addition to base game sales, Konvoy also considers revenue generated from in-app purchases (IAP) and GTA+ subscriptions, projecting $180 million in GTA+ sales and $680 million in IAP within the first two months. Although the conversion rates used by Konvoy are considered "generous" (10-20% for GTA+ and 40% for IAP), even without these additional streams, sales of the base game alone would be enough to surpass GTA V as the highest-grossing media title of all time.

Implications for the Industry and the Consumer

The possible pricing of $80 for GTA 6 raises a significant debate about the future of AAA game prices. If a title with the market power of GTA 6 establishes itself at this level, it could gradually make $70-80 a new standard for the industry. This would have direct implications for the consumer, who would need to pay more for new releases.

The resounding success of GTA 6 is driven by unprecedented hype. The first game trailer, released in December 2023, broke viewing records on YouTube, demonstrating the immense anticipation of fans. Rockstar Games confirmed that GTA 6 will be released for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S, with no initial mention of PC, suggesting a later release for that platform, following the pattern of previous titles in the series.

Although Konvoy's projections are highly optimistic and based on assumptions (such as console availability in the market, as the combined installed base of PS5 and Xbox Series X|S is still lower than that of PS3 and Xbox 360 at the time of GTA V), the influence of GTA 6 in the entertainment landscape is undeniable. The game is not just a highly anticipated release, but a milestone that could redefine what is possible in terms of revenue and cultural impact in the video game industry.